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Kamis, 19 Januari 2012

Filandia dan Estonia perluas bisnis ke Indonesia


Ikon bisnis dan supremasi teknologi telekomunikasi dunia dari Finlandia, Nokia, akan menjadi salah satu komponen rombongan bisnis Finlandia dan Estonia ke Tanah Air.
... terdapat 34 perusahaan dunia dari kedua negara yang kebanyakan adalah perusahaan Finlandia...
Jakarta ,Nokia sudah sangat terkenal di Tanah Air dan konsumennya cukup setia memakai perangkat telekomunikasi buatan Finlandia itu. Cukupkah bermodal fakta itu untuk menambah porsi perdagangan dengan Indonesia?

Tentu tidak, karena delegasi perdagangan perusahaan mancanegara dari Finlandia dan Estonia akan hadir ke Indonesia. Mereka akan berdialog bisnis dengan mitra-mitra Indonesianya dalam waktu beberapa hari ke depan.

"Menteri Perdagangan dan Menteri Urusan Eropa kami, Alexander Stubb, dan Menteri Luar Negeri Estonia, Urmas Paet, akan berkunjung ke Indonesia. Mereka berdua akan memimpin delegasi perusahaan kedua negara kami itu dengan mitra-mitra di Indonesia," kata Duta Besar Finlandia untuk Indonesia, Kai Sauer, di Jakarta, Rabu.

Stubb dan Paet akan berada di Tanah Air selama dua hari sejak 24 Januari nanti. Agenda kunjungan mereka cukup padat, mulai dari resepsi resmi dengan para pemimpin redaksi media massa utama nasional, melakukan konferensi pers, hingga seminar bisnis Finlandia-Estonia dan Indonesia bersama Kamar Dagang dan Industri Nasional.

Menteri Perdagangan Indonesia, Gita Wirjawan, akan mendampingi Stubb dalam konferensi pers kepada jurnalis nasional dan mancanegara yang berbasis di Tanah Air.

"Khusus untuk Menteri Stubb, akan memberi kuliah umum di Universitas Paramadina, Jakarta. Temanya cukup penting, tentang cara Eropa bertahan atas krisis keuangan saat ini," kata Sauer.

Dalam daftar rombongan yang diberi, terdapat 34 perusahaan dunia dari kedua negara yang kebanyakan adalah perusahaan Finlandia. Nokia yang telah menjadi ikon bisnis utama Finlandia jelas hadir yang dipimpin Wakil Presiden Nokia, Blanca Juti.

Perusahaan telekomunikasi papan atas yang harus rela berbagai dengan Blackberry dari Research In Motion ini juga menggelar resepsi makan malam khusus.

Walau bukan menjadi pasar utama bagi kedua negara Skandinavia, namun pertumbuhan ekonomi dan posisi mantap serta terbesar Indonesia di Asia Tenggara menjadi pertimbangan sangat penting. Diam-diam, produk-produk Finlandia cukup banyak dipergunakan masyarakat dan kalangan bisnis Indonesia, di antaranya lift merek Konecrane.

Efisiensi pemakaian sumber daya dan perolehan keluaran yang disajikan produk-produk menjadi nilai tambah yang menjanjikan. Siapa juga yang meragukan tingkat efisiensi tata kelola pemerintahan dan korporasi Finlandia; negara ini tercatat menjadi pemimpin dunia dalam kesuksesan menekan dan memberangus korupsi.

Dengan populasi 5,4 juta jiwa dan angka harapan hidup sekitar 80 tahun, Finlandia mencatatkan diri mempunyai produk domestik bruto 180 miliar euro pada 2010. Tingkat pendapatan mereka juga sangat mengesankan dan menjadi negara papan atas berpendapatan perkapita terbesar, yaitu 33.608 euro pada tahun sama.

Eskpor utama Finlandia ditujukan ke sesama negara Uni Eropa (25 persen), zona euro (30 persen), dan kawasan lain Eropa (16 persen). Asia menduduki tempat berikut (15 persen) sebelum posisi akhir, Amerika Utara (delapan persen).

Produk-produk ungggulan ekspor mereka berbasis perhutanan (20,4 persen), produk kimia (19,8 persen), permesinan dan peralatan transportasi (18,7 persen), produk metal (14,9 persen), produk elektrikal dan telekomunikasi (15,2 persen), dan produk-produk lain (11,0 persen).

Prospek industri jamu diperkirakan semakin cerah

 


Jakarta Prospek industri jamu tahun ini diperkirakan akan semakin cerah seiring dengan semakin terdongkraknya popularitas jamu sebagai solusi kesehatan baik untuk menyembuhkan penyakit maupun menjaga daya tahan tubuh.

"Kalau dari prospek, industri jamu tahun ini jelas lebih bagus dari tahun lalu-lalu karena sekarang popularitasnya semakin naik di kalangan masyarakat," kata Presiden Direktur PT Sido Muncul, Irwan Hidayat, di Jakarta, Rabu.

Ia mengatakan, pada era 1990-an pangsa pasar jamu dibandingkan obat farmasi (kimia) hanya sekitar dua persen.

Namun kini seiring berjalannya waktu pangsa pasar jamu kian meluas hingga mencapai 10-15 persen sejak dekade akhir 2000-an.

"Dulu tahun 1990-an paling pangsanya cuma dua persen sekarang sudah 15-an persen lihat saja popularitas jamu masuk angin ketimbang obat flu, jauh lebih disukai jamu masuk angin," katanya.

Menurut dia, jamu sudah terbukti mampu memberikan solusi untuk berbagai penyakit misalnya kolesterol, lambung, sekaligus meningkatkan daya tahan tubuh, yang khasiatnya lebih baik dari obatan-obatan kimia.

Berdasarkan data Gabungan Pengusaha Jamu Indonesia (GP Jamu), industri jamu lokal diperkirakan akan tumbuh sekitar 5-10 persen pada 2012.

Pada 2011, industri jamu dan obat tradisional menargetkan pencapaian omzet sebesar Rp10 triliun. Sebanyak Rp3 triliun di antaranya omzet industri jamu, sisanya berasal dari kontribusi industri spa, aromaterapi, dan obat bersuplemen.

Garuda tunggu runway Bandara Tampapadang 2.500 meter

Pesawat Garuda
Mamuju ,Gubernur Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, H.Anwar Adnan Saleh, menyampaikan, pihak maskapai penerbangan Garuda belum tertarik masuk ke Bandara Tampapadang, Mamuju, sebab masih menunggu perpanjangan landasan pacu hingga 2.500 meter.

"Pihak maskapai Garuda sebenarnya memiliki niat untuk membuka rute penerbangan ke Mamuju. Namun, mereka baru mewujudkan rencana itu setelah panjang landasan pacu telah mencapai 2.500 meter," kata Anwar Adnan Saleh di Mamuju, Kamis.

Menurut gubernur, pemerintah tetap bertekad agar pembangunan landasan pacu ini bisa ditingkatkan sehingga kelak Bandara Tampapadang ini juga bisa disejajarkan dengan bandara provinsi yang lain.

"Saat ini landasan pacu cukup standar karena telah memiliki panjang 2.250 meter dari kondisi sebelumnya 2.040 meter. Bukan cuma itu kita sudah melakukan perluasan dengan lebar sekitar 45 meter," ungkap gubernur.

Ia mengatakan, pembangunan landasan pacu juga telah memadai karena didukung ketebalan landasan pacu dengan ukuran sekitar 34 FCT/120.000 LBS. Jadi, ini sangat memadai untuk jenis pesawat berbadan lebar.

Gubernur juga mengatakan, layanan penerbangan di Mamuju masih sangat terbatas atau hanya satu jenis pesawat saja dengan rute Mamuju ke Makassar.

Olehnya itu kata dia, Pemprov Sulbar akan terus melakukan upaya agar landasan pacu ini diperpanjang menjadi 2.500 meter.

Selain perbaikan landasan pacu, kata dia, pembangunan apron juga terus ditingkatkan.

"Saat ini pesawat telah bisa diparkir hingga lima armada pesawat berbadan lebar. Kondisi afron saat ini masih perlu perluasan," jelasnya.

Kondisi penumpang yang memanfaatkan jasa penerbangan kata dia, dari waktu ke waktu terus meningkat sehingga terkadang ada penumpang yang tidak dapat terlayani.

"Perlu ada penambahan jumlah armada pesawat ke Mamuju karena saat ini sudah tidak sebanding dengan jumlah penumpang yang memanfaatkan jasa perjalanan udara," kata dia.

Konsultan asing lirik proyek KA bandara Soekarno-Hatta


Jakarta  - Sejumlah konsultan asing sudah melirik proyek-proyek infrastruktur Indonesia, salah satunya adalah proyek kereta api (KA) yang akan menghubungkan Bandara Soekarno-Hatta dan Manggarai.

"Setelah kami mengadakan lelang proyek KA bandara Soekarno-Hatta, ada lima investor asing yang berminat, antara lain Amerika Serikat, Perancis, Spanyol, Kanada dan Jepang," kata Direktur Utama PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI) Emma Sri Martini dalam diskusi Indonesia Infrastructure Outlook 2012 di Gedung BRI II, Jakarta, Kamis (19/1).

Sebelumnya, lanjut Emma, pada 10 November 2011 lalu SMI telah menandatangani MoU dengan pihak Penanggung Jawab Proyek Kerjasama (PJPK) guna mempercepat proses pelaksanaan proyek tersebut.

"Kami memperkirakan pembangunan konstruksi proyek tersebut bisa dimulai pada 2014 mendatang. Saat ini kami masih menunggu proposal pengajuan dari para calon konsultan itu," kata Emma.

Mengenai mekanisme pendanaan, Emma menambahkan, pihaknya menawarkan dua pilihan, yaitu public private partnership dan e-procurement.

"Bukan kami yang mengambil keputusan, melainkan pihak PPJK. Kami hanya membantu persiapan proyek infrastruktur percontohan, salah satunya proyek KA ini," ujar Emma.

Emma berharap konsultan terpilih dapat turut membantu menilai aspek koalisi, status legalitas dan perizinan lahan yang nantinya akan dijadikan lokasi proyek KA Bandara Soekarno-Hatta - Manggarai.

Kemenparekraf target kembangkan ekonomi kreatif berbasis seni

Sapta Nirwandar (ANTARA)
JakartaKementerian Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif (Kemenparekraf) menargetkan mampu mengembangkan ekonomi kreatif berbasis seni budaya, media, desain, dan Iptek (Ilmu pwngwtahuan dan teknologi).

"Berdasarkan rencana kerja pemerintah bidang ekonomi kreatif tahun 2012, kami memprogramkan pengembangkan ekonomi kreatif berbasis seni budaya dan ekonomi kreatif berbasis media, desain, dan Iptek," kata Wakil Menteri Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif, Sapta Nirwandar, di Jakarta, Kamis.

Ia mengatakan, untuk program tersebut pihaknya telah melakukan Rapat Kerja dengan Komisi X DPR RI, salah satunya, untuk menginventarisasi kebutuhan tambahan anggaran.

Tercatat berdasarkan Rapat Kerja tersebut telah diinventarisasi kebutuhan tambahan anggaran sebesar Rp900 miliar.

"Kebutuhan anggaran Rp900 miliar ini dialokasikan untuk delapan kegiatan pokok di bidang ekonomi kreatif," katanya.

Delapan kegiatan pokok itu adalah penelitian dan pengembangan ekonomi kreatif, pengembangan sumber daya ekonomi kreatif, peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah film, video, dan fotografi, serta peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah seni pertunjukan dan musik.

Di samping itu, untuk peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah seni rupa dan kuliner, peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah media, publikasi, dan elektronik, peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah desain dan arsitektur, serta peningkatan kreativitas dan nilai tambah piranti lunak dan permainan interaktif.

Pihaknya juga berencana akan memasukkan kuliner sebagai sub-sektor ekonomi kreatif yang ke-15 yakni kuliner.

"Kuliner erat kaitannya dengan sektor pariwisata dan diharapkan dapat semakin berkembang dan menjadi daya tarik wisatawan sekaligus identitas bangsa Indonesia," katanya.

Sebanyak 14 sub-sektor ekonomi kreatif yaitu fesyen, pasar seni & barang antik, permainan interaktif, film video & fotografi, kerajinan, musik, desain, periklanan, televisi & radio, seni pertunjukan, riset & pengembangan, layanan komputer & piranti lunak, penerbitan & percetakan, serta arsitektur.

Sabtu, 14 Januari 2012

Foreign investment in 2012 predicted at 19.2 billion US dollars

Jakarta  Bank Indonesia has estimated that foreign investment (PMA) in 2012 would continue to increase due to the improved investment climate in Indonesia which was marked by the increase in Indonesia`s rating to investment grade.

"We estimate it may reach 19.1 - 19.2 billion US dollars, higher than last year`s 18.7 billion US dollars," Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia Halim Alamsyah said in Jakarta Thursday.

In the meantime foreign investment in portfolio like shares and bonds may decline from 5.8 billion US dollars to 3.7 billion US dollars, in relation to the worsening economic condition in Europe and risk factor relating to Indonesia`s condition which has not reached the AAA category.

"While already reaching an investment grade, at the portfolio foreign investors would not dare to come to Indonesia," Halim said.

Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said that the growth of world economy would be lower than consumption in the advanced countries which would be stagnant and unemployment would be high.

This will effect the exports of developing countries, while the global financial market is still in a confusion with the continued crisis in Europe causing liquidity in the financial market to continue to remain tight with increasing risks.

In addition, the global financial market is also facing possible rating declines in a number of countries in Europe triggering negative sentiments.

with regard to prices, global inflation pressures have been declining along with declining international commodity prices.

Under such developments, in anticipation of the effects on the weakening global economy amidst the declining inflation, global monetary policy responses had been accommodating.

Domestically, Darmin believed Indonesia`s economy growth in 2011 had been quite firm in line with the well maintained macro-economic stability and financial system.

Economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 may reach 6.5 pct, with the support of the still strong household consumption and investment with exports still being maintained although rather sluggish. In the entire 2011, economic growth may still reach 6.5 pct, higher than the previous year`s 6.1 pct.

Production wise, the sectors which may function as the main boosters of economic growth are industry, transportation, communications, trade, hotels and restaurants.

President sets up team to evaluate coal mining contracts

  The team is headed by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa, while Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik is the executive chairman concurrently a member.

Jakarta  President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has set up a team tasked with evaluating adjustments to be made to coal mining contracts and agreements, according to the official website of the Cabinet Secretariat here Friday.

The evaluation team is established through the presidential decree no. 3/2012 dated January 10, 2012, as a mandate of the Law No. 4/2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining.

The team is headed by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Hatta Rajasa, while Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik is the executive chairman concurrently a member.

The team`s other members include Finance Minister Agus Martowardoyo, Home Affairs Minister Gamawan Fauzi, Law and Human Rights Minister Amir Syamsuddin, Industry Minister MS. Hidayat, Trade Minister Gita Wiryawan, Forestry Minister Zulkifli Hasan, State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, Cabinet Secretary Dipo Alam, and Attorney General Basrief Arief.

The Presidential Decree No. 3/2012 states that the evaluation team is tasked to evaluate all rulings found in the articles of the working contracts and agreements on mining businesses.

The team will also recommend steps needed to tackle the confirmation on working area coverage and the government`s revenue concerning the government`s position in conducting renegotiation on the adjustment of the working contract and agreement on coal mining businesses.

In carrying out its tasks, the evaluation team can involve other ministries, regional administrations and other stakeholders.

The evaluation team can also form a secretariat and a working group.

The team will be effective from the signing of the Presidential Decree No.3/2012 until December 2013.

They will have to report to the President every six months or any time when needed.

Rabu, 04 Januari 2012

Striking Freeport workers delay their return to work


Map showing the location of the mine in Papua
Workers at the Freeport-McMoran copper and gold mine in Indonesia have delayed their return to work after a three-month strike.
The delay occurred amid claims that 500 striking employees working for Freeport's contractors had been threatened with dismissal.
A union spokesman, Juli Pararongan, told the BBC that negotiations on the dispute were continuing.
The strike-hit mine is in Papua, one of the archipelago's poorest provinces.
The industrial action is one of the longest running industrial disputes in Indonesia and has hurt South East Asia's largest economy.
Freeport-McMoran is the largest taxpayer to the Indonesian government.
The decision to end the strike came on 14 December after Freeport bosses agreed to increase wages by 37%.
They also agreed to improved housing allowances, educational assistance and a retirement savings plan for workers to agree to a deal.

Senin, 02 Januari 2012

Singapore's economic growth slows as manufacturing dips


Singaporean businesses are looking to China for new growth opportunities.
Singapore's economic growth slowed in the last quarter of 2011 as reduced demand and supply chain disruptions hurt manufacturing.
The economy grew 3.6% between October and December, from a year earlier, down from 5.9% in the previous quarter.
For the full year, Singapore's economy grew by 4.8%, a sharp decline from a 14.5% expansion in 2010.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has warned that growth is likely to weaken further in 2012.
"The external environment is uncertain. Debt problems in Europe are far from solved. Next year looks like being difficult for the global economy," the prime minister said in his new year's message.
"As a small, open country, Singapore will inevitably be affected," he added.
On a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, the economy contracted by 4.9% during the period, compared with a 1.5% gain in the previous quarter.
Manufacturing hurt

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The moderation of growth in the fourth quarter was largely due to the slowdown in the manufacturing sector”
Ministry of Trade and Industry Singapore
The manufacturing sector is one of the key drivers of growth of Singapore's economy. However the sector has been hit hard by a combination of various factors in recent months.
Firstly, the debt crisis in the eurozone and a sluggish recovery in the US has seen a fall in demand from those key markets.
Secondly, the floods in Thailand in the latter half of 2011 disrupted supplies of components such as hard disk drives, hurting production at Singaporean factories.
Data released last month showed that industrial production fell by 9.6% in November from a year earlier, with electronics production down by 30.1%.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry said the decline was a big drag on economic growth.
"The moderation of growth in the fourth quarter was largely due to the slowdown in the manufacturing sector," it said in a statement.
Overall, the manufacturing sector grew by 6.5% in the the three months to the end to December from a year earlier, down from a 13.4% expansion in the previous quarter.

Venezuela to pay Exxon $255m in oil dispute


Hugo Chavez The ruling may be a boost to President Hugo Chavez
Venezuela has said it will pay Exxon Mobil $255m (£164m) in compensation for assets nationalised in 2007 - less than a third of what an arbitration panel awarded the oil giant.
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris had ruled that PDVSA, Venezuela's state oil company, was required to compensate the US firm.
It said PDVSA should pay Exxon $908m.
But PDVSA said that debts owed by Exxon and court action meant the amount it would actually pay would be much less.
Exxon said the ICC award gave the company "$907.6m of real financial benefit in the form of debt relief and cash".
PDVSA said Exxon had previously used international courts to freeze $300m in Venezuela's US accounts, and added that Exxon owed $191m relating to the financing of an oil project in Venezuela, as well as $160m that the arbitration tribunal said was due.
Exxon had reportedly sought $10bn in compensation for the nationalisation of its heavy crude upgrading project in Venezuela's oil rich Orinoco belt.
"After four years of arbitration, the real amount determined by the ICC tribunal indeed represents less than the exorbitant sum initially demanded," PDVSA said in the statement.
The Venezuelan government said in September it had offered Exxon $1bn to settle the case.
Future cases It is one of many arbitration cases currently under consideration after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered the nationalisation of the assets of some oil companies including Exxon and Conoco Phillips.
"They must be elated that they got off so cheap. It's certainly a happy new year for Venezuela," said Russ Dallen at Caracas Capital Markets after the ICC announced its ruling.
The decision was made by an arbitration tribunal at the ICC. Under the rules of the arbitration, its decisions are binding.
Exxon will hope for a better result in the next case concerning the nationalisation of its Cerro Negro heavy oil project, which is being heard by a different arbitration panel.
An Exxon spokesman said: "The larger ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes) arbitration against the government of Venezuela is ongoing and is expected to be argued in February for the fair market value of the project.
"We recognise Venezuela's legal right to expropriate assets subject to compensation at fair market value."
Much of Venezuela's so far untapped reserves are harder-to-process heavy oil, and the Venezuelan government has been keen to increase state revenues from these reserves.
Analysts have said the country's aggressive nationalisation strategy may have deterred foreign investors and limited oil production.
But despite the moves, which saw Exxon and Conoco Philips leave the country, other oil firms have continued to invest.
In 2010, US firm Chevron and Spain's Repsol signed investment deals to exploit resources in the country's Orinoco belt.

India 'may reverse' monetary policy to boost growth


Duvvuri Subbarao of the Reserve Bank of India said the bank has always been 'mindful of growth concerns'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said it may ease its monetary policy amid fears of a global economic slowdown.
Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of RBI, told the BBC the bank is likely to shift its focus towards boosting growth.
The RBI has raised its key interest rate 13 times since March 2010 in a bid to control rising consumer prices.
However, there have been fears that excessive tightening may hurt growth.
"From here on we could expect reversal of monetary tightening," Mr Subbarao told the BBC's India Business Report.
However, Mr Subbarao added that it was "difficult to say when that will take place and in what shape it will roll out".
'Mindful of growth'

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We have always been mindful of growth concerns, contrary to popular perceptions”
Duvvuri Subbarao Reserve Bank of India
Over the past two years, the RBI has focused on controlling the high rate of inflation in the country.
Rising costs of food and other essential commodities such as fuel saw consumer prices rise sharply in India, prompting the central bank to raise the cost of borrowing in a bid to slow domestic demand.
The tightening measures have started to have some impact on stemming price growth, with the rate of inflation falling to 9.1% in November, from 9.7% in the previous month.
However, there have been concerns that the high cost of borrowing has also hurt businesses in the country.
Industrial production in India fell 5.1% in October from a year earlier, the first such fall in almost two years.
That, coupled with a slowdown in the eurozone and the US, has raised fears that India's economic growth may slow further in the coming months.
Mr Subbarao said that although inflation still remained a risk, the RBI was aware that it needed to boost growth amid an uncertain global economic environment.
"We have always been mindful of growth concerns, contrary to popular perceptions," he said.
"In fact, in our December statement we said that growth is a serious concern. So I think the balance between growth and inflation will shift in 2012," he added.

Viewpoint: China, the 'leading dragon' of the world economy


Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Justin Yifu Lin's new book is called "Demystifying the Chinese Economy"
Whether we are on the verge of an "Asian Century" or not, one thing is clear: there has already been a dramatic shift in the geographic centre of the global economy.
China is now front and centre, and its role as a leading dragon can be beneficial for growth prospects for the world economy.
The world desperately needs engines of growth right now, and fortunately - with continued strong and pragmatic economic policy making - China can provide that impetus.
China is now the world's second biggest economy and the largest exporter of goods, with 9.6% of the global share, followed by Germany, the United States and Japan. China has an income per capita of $4,400 in current dollars and is well established as a high-middle income country.
China's foreign reserves, which now exceed $3 trillion, are the largest in the world.
Behind this rise, there has been a dramatic structural transformation entailing rapid industrialisation, a massive movement out of agriculture, and an impressive stretch of trade-related growth.

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Contagion from the Euro area... sagging demand in high-income countries... a double-dip recession in advanced countries cannot be ruled out as a downside risk”
The 'advantage of backwardness'
China has the potential to grow dynamically for another 20 years. This is in part because, as of 2008, the country still had a capita income that was just 21% of US per capita income - measured in purchasing power parity terms. This US-China income gap is evidence that a big technological gap still exists between China and the industrialised countries.
China can continue to enjoy the advantage of backwardness before closing the gap.
By 2030, China's income per head (measured in purchasing power parity) may reach about 50% of that in the United States. By then, China's economic size (in purchasing power parity terms) may be twice as large as the US; and measured at market exchange rates, China may be at least the same size as the US two decades from now.
The challenges
Chinese dragon in Tianamen Square China's economy is set to become a "lead dragon", says Justin Lin
Yet China and other emerging markets must confront several serious challenges in the coming years. First, contagion from the Euro area and sagging demand in high-income countries could dampen hopes for moderate world growth over the next few years. Indeed, a double-dip recession in advanced countries cannot be ruled out as a downside risk.
Nationally, China must tackle what amounts to a triple imbalance.
Engineering a shift towards domestic demand and moving from an over-reliance on export-led growth represents the first rebalancing.
The process should be balanced between consumption and continued strong growth in investment. The latter is critical for industrial upgrading, raising incomes, as well as developing "green economy" sectors and protecting the environment.
The second rebalancing entails a structural transformation to reduce income disparities. In spite of the general improvement of living standards, China has shifted from a relatively egalitarian society in 1979 to a country with alarming income inequality. The Gini index [a common measure of social inequality] reached 41.5 in 2005, approaching the level of Latin American countries. The widening of disparity may threaten social stability and hinder economic growth.
The third imbalance relates to environmental costs that have accompanied rapid growth. China needs to shift its stance vis-a-vis short-term growth and long-term environmental sustainability. The future structure of production must shift towards cleaner technologies.
China's growing reach As a result of superior growth in the developing world, we are now in a multi-polar growth world, with economic weight shifting from the G7 economies [of seven leading industrialised nations] to developing economies.

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The gradual emergence of the Chinese Renminbi as a global reserve currency... is almost inevitable given the growing relative strength of China ”
China's contributions to the multi-polar world are manifold. For high-income countries, China's growth will expand markets for their capital goods and intermediate goods exports.
Many developing countries are still major producers of agricultural and natural resource commodities. Chinese consumption and production growth will continue to support adequate commodity prices and thus help these exporters.
In addition, the Chinese government and Chinese firms will also provide funds for natural resource and infrastructure investment in emerging markets and low-income countries. This is already happening, and it is likely to continue. In particular, there is a growing role of Chinese finance in the Africa region - the developing region with the most constrained access to finance.
Also, as China undergoes industrial upgrading, it will leave space for other developing countries to enter the more labour-intensive industries. Chinese enterprises are expected to relocate their existing production to other lower wage countries as they upgrade to higher value-added industries - just like Japan and East Asian economies did a few decade ago.
The difference is that, because of its size, China may become a "leading dragon" for other developing countries instead of a "lead goose" in the traditional flying geese pattern of the international diffusion of industrial development.
Over time, there is also the possibility of the gradual emergence of the Chinese Renminbi as a global reserve currency.
This is something that would require many fundamental reforms in the Chinese economy; however, it is almost inevitable given the growing relative strength of China in the multi-polar world.
Justin Yifu Lin is the author of Demystifying the Chinese Economy, the 18th book to his name. He is the World Bank's chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics. Before joining the World Bank he served as Founding Director and Professor of the China Centre for Economic Research (CCER) at Beijing University.

China's global reach: lending more than the World Bank


Chinese sign outside Lusaka Airport Chinese advertising has its places at Zambia's Lusaka airport
European officials may have flown to Beijing with their begging bowl underarm, but for developing countries, China's cheque book comes to you.
Over the past few years, delegations from China's big banks have been criss-crossing the globe signing a plethora of billion dollar deals with some of the world's poorest nations.
"Last year China provided more loans to the developing world than even the World Bank," says Jamie Metzl from the US-based Asia Society. "The role of China is large, it's growing and it's critically important."
As the lender to go to for credit-poor governments, China's yuan is replacing World Bank dollars as the cash behind new roads, power stations, hospitals and other infrastructure.
Where to invest? In 2010, the World Bank agreed $11.4bn worth of loans to some 36 African countries. China also agreed a host of loans to African governments. One of them, a loan facility to Ghana, reportedly is worth almost $13bn alone.

Lending to Africa 2010

World Bank v China's Export Import Bank*
  • Cameroon: WB $30m; China $743m
  • Rep. Congo: WB $25.5m; China $75.8m
  • Ghana: WB $313m; China $9.87bn
  • Nigeria: WB $890m; China $900m
  • Zambia: World Bank $95m; China $315m
(*data for Exim Bank are for specific reported loans; total amount of Chinese lending likely to be significantly higher)
But as Dr Zhao Changhui from China's Export Import Bank happily points out, his country has $3tn sat waiting to be spent. The nation's politics may be red, but the balance sheet is most definitely black.
So where to invest?
"Countries all across Latin America are surely the most eye catching in the last few years, but on top of that countries in Africa and Asia are also very pleasing," replies Dr Zhao.
Global investments Those eye catching projects may include the vast hydro power dam being constructed in the Coca River in Ecuador. The project has been on the table for decades - seen as vital to helping improve the nation's energy supply. But cash was a problem.
"Because Ecuador has defaulted on its debt in the past, the international markets are not ready or willing to buy Ecuadorian debt," explains Quito-based economist Ramiro Crespo.
Coca River China helps finance a hydro-electric project at Ecuador's Coca River
"Without international organisations, without foreign investment, without international markets, then you have to look for another source. That happens to be China, which has a lot of reserves and extra money," he points out.
The multi-billion dollar loan from China that's helped turn the hydro dam project into a reality is to be charged at an interest rate of 6.9%.
"The risk and the appetite for risk of Chinese companies is different to other companies," suggests Hannah Erdinger from the Johannesburg-based financial consultancy firm Frontier Advisory.
She has witnessed a swift and large push into Africa by Chinese banks. "Traditional partners of the continent such as those with colonial links or development partners have moved out of infrastructure financing and it's a gap that's been left and needs to be filled," says Ms Erdinger.
China has found the gap to its liking. In countries like Zambia and Angola, the activities of Chinese construction firms are hard to avoid. Billboards, road signs, even cash machines are now displaying Chinese symbols.
In Angola, China has been offering loans since 2003 when the nation emerged from civil war. To date, it has extended credit lines to Angola worth $15bn as Chinese companies come over and build new infrastructure in the country. In return, Angola sends China its oil.
China's circular cash
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With the high rates of unemployment and destitution in the country, Zambians have looked to this high influx of Chinese into the country as an explanation to why they have some of the problems they have”
Chris Alden China in Africa Project
But this particular arrangement has flaws, argues Chris Alden from the China in Africa Project.
"Essentially the money stays in China - it's focused on the project, rather than producing a knock-on effect to the economy. The point is the money doesn't circulate into Angola but rather stays within the Chinese project circles."
This belief - that much of the money stays within China - may explain some of the resentment rumbling against the Chinese in Africa, suggests Zambian civil society researcher Chilufya Chileshe.
"With the high rates of unemployment and destitution in the country, Zambians have looked to this high influx of Chinese into the country as an explanation to why they have some of the problems they have."
Those problems are acute. Two thirds of the population remain in poverty and only 10% have formal employment.
The perceived failure of China's cash to significantly boost development in credit-poor nations has led to accusations that the "condition-lite" loans are undermining the efforts of the World Bank.
Chinese international school, Lusaka The Chinese International School in Lusaka
Billion dollar concerns Jamie Metzl from the Asia Society is among those who believe that China is neglecting a moral duty to ensure its loans come with requirements that improve the long term health of a nation's economy.
"China needs to do much more to demonstrate its global responsibility and commitment to building an international system that benefits everybody," he claims. Mr Metzl wants to see China work with the World Bank to ensure loans come with tougher conditions on transparency, anti-corruption and human rights.
It is an argument Dr Zhao from China's Export Import Bank believes is unfair.
"These allegations have always been pushed forward by many in the West - but in reality things are much more complicated," he notes, suggesting China's willingness to deal with countries ostracised by Western nations - such as Zimbabwe - helps the people, and will reap benefits in the end.
No strings attached
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The mind set has been influenced too much in one direction - the Western conception, the Western ideas, the Western way of doing business”
Dr Zhao Changhui Export Import Bank, China
Whatever the eventually outcomes, it's clear China is reducing the influence of the World Bank, says Mr Metzl, who cites an example from a few years ago.
"Cambodia was considering a $600m loan from the World Bank that had conditions about transparency and anti-corruption and accountability. The Cambodians basically told the World Bank to go to hell and the next day they received a $601m loan from the Chinese with no conditions."
Despite the criticisms, Dr Zhao is not going to apologise for China's growing influence in the economies of the developing world.
"The mind set has been influenced too much in one direction - the Western conception, the Western ideas, the Western way of doing business," he argues. The world should not close its ears to China's philosophy and wisdom he suggests.
"So long as an economy is growing steadily, healthily, and the people can eventually benefit in a much better well-being, then these sort of models should at least be welcomed."
Additional reporting by Irene Caselli in Ecuador and Louise Redvers in Zambia.
'China: the world's sub-prime lender' can be heard on the BBC World Service's One Planet programme

Iran's rial slides against US dollar on fresh sanctions


Rial and US dollar notes The Iranian rial has come under increasing pressure against the US dollar in recent months
Iran's currency dropped 12% against the US dollar after the US unveiled fresh sanctions targeting its central bank.
According to reports, the rial was being traded at 17,800 to the dollar by money changers in Tehran on Monday, down from 15,900 on Sunday.
The US has threatened to take action against foreign firms and institutions dealing with the Iranian central bank.
The central bank's website showed the exchange rate as 11,180 rial to one US dollar.
'Force a choice' The new measures could see the US deny access to its financial system to companies that do business with the Iranian central bank.
Analysts said the measures, which were signed into law by US President Barack Obama as part of a defence bill, may see companies and institutions become more wary of dealing with Iran.
"The sanctions will force a choice between buying Iranian oil or engaging in the US financial system, the largest in the world," said Brian Katulis of the Center for American Progress.
"That is going to change the risk calculus for a lot of folks."
This has led to speculation that some firms may now try to withdraw capital from Iran.
According to media reports, money changers in Tehran had stopped selling the US dollar in the hope that they will get an even better rate in coming days.

Eurozone manufacturing decline persists, PMI survey says


Activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell for the fifth successive month in December, but showed a slight improvement on the previous month, a closely-watched survey suggests.
The Markit eurozone manufacturing PMI was 46.9, up from November's 28-month low of 46.4. Any score under 50 represents a contraction.
Employment rose in Germany and France, but fell across the bloc as a whole.
Markets in Germany, France and Italy rose after the news.
Market boost However, trading was very light, with UK markets closed for a public holiday, which can mean share movements are more pronounced than usual.
Frankfurt's Dax index was the strongest performer, rising 3%. In Paris, the Cac 40 was 2% higher and Milan's FTSE MIB was up 2.4%.
The relative strength of the German economy was also highlighted by two pieces of domestic data.
The number of people in employment in Germany hit a new record in 2011, topping 41m for the first time, official data showed.
This may have boosted consumer spending, which the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry suggested was at its highest level for more than 10 years.
Recession fear
Markit said manufacturing growth in the final three months of last year was the weakest since the middle of 2009.
"Eurozone manufacturing is clearly undergoing another recession," said Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson.
"Despite the rate of decline easing slightly in December, production appears to have been collapsing across the single currency area at a quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% in the final quarter of 2011."
Markit said production levels and new orders fell in all 17 member nations in December.
Austria recorded the highest score of 49, followed by France on 48.9 and Germany on 48.4.
The survey also found that input prices across the eurozone fell for the third straight month.
Many economists believe the eurozone economy as a whole is heading for recession, after growing by just 0.2% between July and September - the latest figures available.
"Eurozone manufacturers are now very much on the back foot and finding life extremely challenging as domestic demand is hit by tighter fiscal policy across the region, squeezed consumer purchasing power, and heightened eurozone sovereign debt tensions leading to tightening credit conditions and financial market turmoil," said Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight.
The research group believes the latest PMI data provides "significant support" to the case for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates again in the next few months.
A poll conducted among leading economists by the BBC last week found that, of the 27 who responded, 25 forecast a return to recession for Europe next year.
Closed pharmacy Greece, which saw its first strike of the year on Tuesday, had the severest downturn in activity
Eurozone summit The most severe contractions were in Italy, Greece and Spain, the Markit survey suggested.
Greece, which saw its first strike of the year on Monday when doctors and pharmacists protested against cuts, had a score of just 42. Spain was 43.7, while Italy was 44.3.
Markit highlighted particularly sharp falls in new business at Spain's factories, where the number of new orders has now be declining for 8 months in a row.
Last week, Spain's newly elected centre-right government has said that the country's deficit was worse than previously forecast.
On Friday, the government said the deficit in 2011 would be 8% of GDP rather than the 6% predicted by the outgoing socialist government. It economy minister indicated in a radio interview on Monday that the figure may be even higher.
And the leaders of France and Germany have announced their first meeting of 2012 to discuss measures to tackle the crisis in the eurozone.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have announced they will meet on 9 January to prepare for a meeting of the European Council at the end of the month.